is too aggressive and the company will fall short. his favorite analyst that covers apple is going to release his report on apple the week before the earnings announcement. report stands for the analyst's report, and forecast stands for the earnings announcement. prior probabilities : P(GOOD REPORT)=0.2 ?P(MEDIUM REPORT)=0.5 ? P(BAD REPORT)= 0.3. Conditional probabilities: P(Below forecast I Good report)= 0.1 ? ? P(Below forecast I Medium report)=0.4 P(Below forecast I Bad report)= 0.9 . What is the probability the analyst issued a good report given apple's earnings announcements was below the forecast?.
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